🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Market Movement in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the time leading up to former President Trump announced on Saturday that the president had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A handful of other platform users also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule introduced on the start of the week would prevent federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."